Much has been said about the raw mathematics behind Magic the Gathering.  Probability and simple arithmetic comprise the game’s backbone and are the factor that separates the merely good players from the truly great.  Many players are mastering a layer of strategy beyond common Math’s jurisdiction.  There is an intuitive, almost ethereal element of instinct intrinsic to the game as well.  An outside observer might even say it’s a bit like “Magic”.  In this article I’ll explore the nature of this sixth sense as it pertains to Magic the Gathering.

You’re on the final turn of a very close match.  Both you and your opponent are at dangerously low life totals.  You have three Llanowar Elves in play and an Overrun in your hand.  You do the math and realize that, assuming your buddy doesn’t have something that can stop this damage, you’ve got just enough on the table for a kill.  Your deductive reasoning comes into play.  You haven’t seen any white cards played and he can’t produce white mana so you can probably rule out a Holy Day, Harms Way or Safe Passage.  But your opponent has one green mana left untapped.  Could it be a Fog in his hand?  You have to attack with everything or you won’t kill him, which would allow him a chance kill you next turn with his 2/2 flying creature.  What do you do?

If your opponent has this look on his face... you can take that into consideration.

In this particular situation, you need to calculate how much damage required to kill your opponent.  You also need to anticipate the final card in his hand.  There are many logical ways to arrive at an educated guess about what that card is.  Has he played Fog yet in this game?  Does Fog even make sense in the type of deck he’s playing?  Does your buddy have an evil grin on his face?  In the end, while probability might play a role in your decision, the fact of the matter is there is no way of knowing whether or not that last card in his hand is a Fog.  You may be able to give yourself a set of “odds” but no amount of math will save you in this situation.  This is where intuition comes into play.

Take the game of poker as an example.  To the non-player, poker is very much a game of chance, even more so than MTG.  But why then is it that the same handful of players win these huge tournaments each and every year?  The answer is a combination of experience, probability and intuition.  If you’ve ever seen a championship match on TV you’ll have seen the “win chance percentages” next to each player’s hand on the screen.  Often times the percentages are 50/50 and you’ll see a guy go “all in” and take the entire pot.  That’s raw, unabashed intuition in practice.  Its as important as anything in a game involving chance and unknowable variables.

Back to the original question – how do we nurture and develop this gift as a player?  First- and I may break some hearts with this revelation but the fact of the matter is, there is little magic behind intuition. It all comes back to observation, deduction and math.  And when these three things are utilized in an unconscious, brash manner, we call it intuition.  Its magical in the sense that we do not know exactly how it works but since it is so closely entangled with our personal amount of experience and intelligence, it is probably more a feat of the amazing human mind than it is “magic”.

The human mind can do unexplainable things.

That having been said, the way to master one’s own instinct is to play often, pay attention to everything going on in the game and in the end to trust that feeling even if you can’t fully explain why you’re making that decision.  I am reminded of the human gift known as savant syndrome.  If you’ve seen the movie “Rain Man” you’ll know what I’m talking about.  Persons with this syndrome can tell you how many dots are on a page without thinking and what day of the week George Washington’s birthday was in a heartbeat.  Scientists don’t fully understand the syndrome yet and those with the gift cannot explain what is going on inside their heads when they perform such feats.  My point here is that the human mind is not restrained by which mathematical formulas it has memorized or how many numbers it can hold at once.  Magic, like poker, is a game where it is utterly impossible to account for every variable in a given game.  But if you as a player pay attention to what is going on some things that are completely incalculable will begin to “click” for you unconsciously.  Maybe not “Rain Man” style but surely often enough for it to positively effect your game.

With this knowledge I would argue that, while math is the basis upon which this concept is built upon, letting go and trusting your instincts can often be more effective than simply “doing the math”.  Allow me to explain.  When a player adds up the damage in his hand to see if he can defeat his opponent in five turns, he’s doing simple arithmetic, adding up to the number twenty.  This is a great strategy and helps you to plan our your next four or five turns.  Most good players do this.  But a player who vaguely intuits the amount of damage in his hand is presented with a more applicable “range” of damage.  For example he might come to the conclusion that he can do about 16-22 damage with this hand depending on his next few draws and what his opponent does.  While this strategy might be less precise he is not going to get stuck in his own “plan” and be foiled by a simple Harms Way or creature with ‘protection from red’.  The folly of a precise number is that you can not only get it wrong mathematically (cmon, admit it, its happened to you too!).  But you can also find yourself too adherent to a plan that might not be the best course of action as the game unfolds.

Too often a player gets caught up in their own mathematical scheme.  It becomes too rigid and doesn’t allow enough opportunity to react and “counter” what your opponent might be doing.  Your plan could have been to use your entire hand to do 20 damage to your opponent.  But you could have foiled your opponent’s entire strategy with a intuitive Lightning Bolt at their Elvish Archdruid on turn two.  Again, and I cant emphasis this enough, math is extremely important but there are many times when no amount of deduction or addition is going to point you in the right direction.

This skill comes into play outside the game as well like when deciding which deck to bring to an event or which color cards to grab in sealed.   Building and using your sideboard is a great place to use instinct.  Is this guy playing elves?  Should I throw in a Deathmark or two?  Should I even have Deathmark in my sideboard?  These questions are without the realm of math’s jurisdiction and are completely up to you to intuit.

Sometimes when things seem impossible its better to just turn off the targeting computer and go with your intuition. (or the force.. whichever)

Again, I’m not asking anyone to throw reason and common sense out the window.  On the contrary, I think people should pay more attention to what is going on in their games.   How many cards are left in an opponent’s library?  What’s creatures are in the graveyard?  How many cards are in their hand? etc.  But when you find yourself in those 50/50 conundrums you should learn to trust your instincts and intuition as much as possible.  Should I rush or try and get board control?  What are the chances that I’ll topdeck that Cruel Ultimatum?  It may not work every time but the more experience you garner the more acute it will be.  Pay close attention to every detail, use math when applicable and let your subconscious fill in the rest.  Just ask a professional player about running on instinct and I’m sure they’ll have a story or two to tell.  While it may not be real magic you’re wielding, the power of the human mind cannot be underestimated.

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Just over a year ago Mark Rosewater, the Head Designer of Magic the Gathering wrote this lengthy article on some upcoming changes to the game we love. While so-called Change #1 is very important to MTG fans, especially the standard format loving ones, Change #2 is the focus here. It has been one year since Mythic rarity was introduced to the Magic playing public and the result has been lackluster.  The intended purpose of a new rarity was two-fold: make an impact in how players collected cards, and highlight very special cards.  The results have been mixed, and looking at the list of Mythic rares released so far I am wondering if WotC should have bothered at all.  Players and collectors are growing more jaded each set as Mythic cards like Sphinx Ambassador and Dragon Broodmother continue to lower our expectations.  When Zendikar is released in October players will probably care less about the possible Mythics than possible dual-lands.  Probably not what Mark Rosewater had in mind.  The following is a look at what has gone wrong, and some easy solutions to the ‘Mythic problem’.

planeswalkers: the real reason for mythic rarity

One type of Mythic rare more than deserves the title. As detailed here Planeswalkers are the soul of Magic the Gathering now and for the foreseeable future. Each passing day WotC releases a tiny bit more about Sorin Markov and we all swoon. There is an excitement around these cards that makes them desirable and ‘epic’ to use the term Rosewater wrote in his piece. Disparities have always existed between rares, some cards are better than others and it is an accepted part of MTG. But it is obvious Ajani Goldmane in every facet is superior when compared to say, Howling Mine. More powerful, more alluring, and most importantly (at least to Wizards) more flavorful. I have no issues with making these valued above other MTG offerings, even the card style is unique. Planeswalkers meet all the criteria involved, and were probably the reason for a new level of rarity in the first place. Perhaps WotC should have kept the Mythic rarity right here instead of forcing it upon cards it doesn’t fit.

for many creatures mythic = unplayable

Huge creatures have always been a part of Magic and that is fine. Actually I love it. Giant green nasties grabbed my interest in the game and held it long enough to develop it into something slightly deeper. Only slightly mind you, because creatures like Baneslayer Angel still bring a joyous single tear to my eye. But do creatures ever deserve to be Mythic? Maybe, but WotC has a funny way of making the decisions regarding which earn the tag. The stated criteria of Mythic rarity per Rosewater: . . . “most legendary creatures, and epic-feeling creatures . . . They will not just be a list of each set’s most powerful tournament-level cards.” Sounds admirable, but how accurate are these guidelines in practice. Some legendary creatures like Gwafa Hazid, Profiteer and Rakka Mar were left off the Mythic bandwagon. Apparently in favor of more flavorful cards like Thornling, and Defiler of Souls.  Stoic Angel does not have that ambiguous epic feel, but Jenara, Asura of War does?  I can’t tell.  Also, how was it decided that the Xathrid Demon is any more epic, or powerful than a card like Captain of the Watch that puts nine power on the table? Because allegedly this is not a list of each set’s most powerful tournament cards. That must explain why Noble Hierarch and Broodmate Dragon aren’t Mythic. Of course that doesn’t begin to tell us why Baneslayer Angel is. The seeming purpose of BA as to be simply the best creature in M10, tournament of otherwise. As long as Mythic exists, then obviously Baneslayer should be Mythic. However it barely hits one (epic feeling) of the three targets Mark Rosewater outlined. How is that possible? Because the stated criteria are clearly not how they decide Mythic status. At least not for creatures. So what about other spells?

not mythic. am i missing something?

Non-creature spells are held to the same lofty expectations that creatures are in relation to Mythic status. And for the most part these outrageous spells hit their marks much more accurately. They are almost always epic, both in feel and mana cost (I’m looking right at you Conflux). And they absolutely aren’t ‘only the most powerful tournament-level cards’. For the most part they are what WotC said they would be, and there are relatively few of of them (only four so far). However a new set of issues pop up here. Instead of the cards they made Mythic, the beef is with the ones they should have made Mythic. The best example of this would be the cycle of ultimatums. Awesome, game-changing spells full of flavor and large enough (seven colored mana) to meet any Mythic standard. Cruel Ultimatum is considered by some to be the most powerful non-creature spell ever printed. Perfect, Mythic rarity to the lot of them and everything is fine. Nope instead we are stuck with Lichs Mirror the only non-creature/non-planeswalker Mythic in Shards of Alara. A card that I have never seen played. Online or otherwise. This lack of action does not stem from the rarity either. My two closest MTG buddies each own at least one copy. If you suggest they include it in a deck you get laughed at. Literally. To conlude, the best non-creature spell in Alara or standard or maybe ever is regular old Rare, and the one Mythic in the set is laughable. This cannot be what Wizards imagined when the idea of Mythic rarity was born.

The way Mythic rarity has been used thus far has been, excluding planewalkers, a tragedy. Mythic creatures seem to be arbitrary and Mythic spells feel like missed opportunity. This wayward ship needs to be righted. And the options are not nearly as difficult as one might imagine. First option, Mythic rarity is reserved for the only cards that truly fit: planeswalkers. This would serve as a way to further separate and highlight them, and maintain the collectible aspect WotC desires. The second option is to do away with it entirely. The list of failed gimmicks related to MTG is actually rather short so one misstep can easily be forgiven. Finally, if Mythic is the path you want to walk WotC then walk it all the way. To clarify, if there is now a level of cards above Rare make them the best cards in Magic. Don’t hold back from making cards like Wrath of God, Cruel Ultimatum and Maelstrom Pulse Mythic. Especially not out of some pseudo-noble attempt to keep the really good cards accessible to everyone (the purpose of rarity in the first place was to make certain cards harder to get). Fans should be clamoring to find out about all the Mythics in each new set , not simply the new planeswalkers and lands. The Mythic tag should be a glowing showcase of a card’s over-all coolness. As of now all it represents is opportunity missed.

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