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Winners and Losers

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I’m sure if you’ve got a pulse in the Magic community these days you’re aware of the exciting Modern Masters set coming out next week. This set has some of the most expensive cards in Modern in it and tons of supply to go around. Without a doubt there will be a ton of price shifts as people are able to pick up Tarmogoyfs for under $100 for the first time in 5 years. Some decks will have some big overall price changes and I’m here to talk about the biggest winners from Modern Masters.

B/G Decks

Tarmogoyf
Liliana of the Veil
Verdant Catacombs

Pretty much every B/G based deck with the exception of Collected Company decks received a starter pack with this most recent Modern Masters set. The most expensive cards in the deck (by total value) are Tarmogoyf, Liliana of the Veil, Verdant Catacombs, and Dark Confidant. With the 3 most expensive seeing a reprint it will bring the total cost of the deck under $2000 for the first time as far as many players can remember. Even smaller cards like Abrupt Decay, Terminate, Inquisition of Kozilek, Path to Exile, Lingering Souls, and Damnation saw a reprint helping to curb the cost of the decks. The most important parts that didn’t receive a reprint are the lands in Jund (Blackcleave Cliffs and Raging Ravine) and the creatures in Abzan (Noble Hierarch and Grim Flayer). If you’re starting to build one of these decks, you should be looking ahead to get the cards that haven’t been reprinted recently and wait about a month for the Modern Masters 2017 cards to bottom out.

Force of Will’s price graph is definitely the trajectory I’m expecting for most of the Modern Masters 2017 mythics. They may have a pretty steep price drop the weekend of release and then a rebound as stores purchase copies. After a month or two it will be relatively stable. There is a chance that they do another Modern Masters 2017 print run around Christmas like they did with Eternal Masters but I wouldn’t count on it. If you want to get into the Tarmo-Liliana decks you will have your best chance once Amonkhet is released.

Burn

Arid Mesa
Goblin Guide

Burn isn’t and wasn’t a very expensive deck, but there was a barrier to entry that looked pretty ugly on paper. Goblin Guide and Arid Mesa (or Scalding Tarn if you are that guy) are the two most expensive cards in the deck and are getting reprinted without a rarity shift. In fact, the rest of the deck is so inexpensive that those 8 cards usually made up 1/3 of the cost of the entire deck. This is one of the decks that I feel will have the most rebounds in other places. We’ve gone two Modern Masters sets without reprints to Lava Spike ($3), Lightning Helix ($5), and Rift Bolt ($2) and those could all be due for a few dollar increase. People have already reacted to the news by purchasing Eidolon of the Great Revel (a card that is not able to be part of Modern Masters until 2019 presumably) and causing it to double from $6 to $12 overnight. Ultimately the deck will be significantly cheaper but there is still time to grab the expensive commons and uncommons before people realize there might exist more Eidolons than Lava Spikes.

Snapcaster Mage decks

Snapcaster Mage
Scalding Tarn

It’s really hard to quantify what that actually means because there are some Delver decks and some control decks but they play a lot of the same base of cards. While it is unfortunate that Ancestral Vision was not a card that was a card that was chosen to be reprinted but Snapcaster Mage and Scalding Tarn will definitely make a dent in the price of this deck. Although it may not seem significant, another Serum Visions reprint will also help it finally stay under $2 and maybe hit as low as $1 from its high a few years ago at $10. Wizards of the Coast has done a pretty good job of hammering home the common and uncommon reprints to keep them affordable for newer players. There are also some minor reprints (depending on your list) in Inquisiton of Kozilek and Terminate. At this point I would probably recommend getting the Ancestral Visions first as they are likely the biggest barrier to entry for this deck and the least likely to be reprinted. Ultimately these reprints are not as good for these decks as the B/G ones, they will help in the long run.

Storm

Past in Flames
Gifts Ungiven
Blood Moon

Storm is the deck that ironically has changed a lot recently but also had almost all of the rares in the deck reprinted in Modern Masters 2017. The most expensive rares in the deck were Gifts Ungiven, Blood Moon, Scalding Tarn, Past in Flames, Flooded Strand, and Spirebluff Canal. Previously you could substitute Polluted Delta for Scalding Tarn and be pretty much fine but with the 4 cards not printed in the last 3 years getting reprinted the deck is pretty affordable. It’s definitely a deck I plan to build if Blood Moon hits $15 because that’s really the only irreplaceable expensive piece of the deck. If you want to get ahead of the game, start grabbing the commons and uncommons that didn’t get reprinted. Manamorphose is $5 and has had supply problems in the past. Sleight of Hand and Remand are the only other two non-rare cards that make up more than $10 of the deck. Ultimately if there is enough supply this will be hands down the best deck for those on a budget. It’s powerful and competitive and will likely be affordable for under $200. Due to the nature of Storm not getting new cards really in most sets, it will have low upkeep costs too.

Biggest Losers

Karn Liberated
Mox Opal

Anything that isn’t playing gold cards, or I guess really just colorless cards are the biggest losers. Karn Liberated and Mox Opal were headliners of the last Modern Masters set and were not reprinted this time which will likely cause some price corrections. Many players had been holding out to see which cards got reprinted before spending their money on new cards. With the artifact theme of the past two Modern Masters sets being removed it left little room for rare colorless staples to see a reprint. Notable cards that have been excluded include Chalice of the Void, Aether Vial, Karn Liberated, Mox Opal, Arcbound Ravager, Engineered Explosives, Ensnaring Bridge, Crucible of Worlds, and Eldrazi Temple. Unfortunately it means that the Eldrazi decks, Tron, and Lantern Control decks will likely be in for some steep price increases in the near future as there is no price relief in sight. I think some of this may have been due to the fact that a lot of these cards were included as Kaladesh Inventions but Wizards may have underestimated the upcoming demand for these critical pieces.

Final Thoughts

This set has exceeded many people’s expectations and I think that will be the best for the growth of Modern (which is already one of the most popular formats). While it’s unfortunate that not every deck got the same amount of love, there is definitely a lot of opportunity to save money now and in the future if you purchase your singles intelligently. Trying to keep one step ahead of most players is the hardest and best way to save yourself money.


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