If you have been paying attention to any of the Magic news last week you might have missed this very important one. It is by far the most important financial news in years. While it’s true it doesn’t explicitly say anything about the price of cards in the article, it will have a huge influence on the prices of cards in the future. The bigger spotlight on Legacy and Modern will have an effect we’ve seen before.

Team Trios

An old event is returning to the Grand Prix circuit, as it has recently picked up steam as one of the most popular events on the SCG Tour. Just last weekend, the SCG Open in Atlanta drew over 250 teams to its triple format team tournament. If you’re unfamiliar, this format is played between teams of 3 players where one player plays a Standard deck, one plays a Modern deck, and one plays a Legacy deck. It allows friends that have different preferences to get to play their favorite format. Now that this format is returning to the Grand Prix scene, it will cause a new avenue for people to qualify for the Pro Tour. Currently if you really enjoy playing Legacy, you only had one or two Grand Prix per year to play in to qualify. With the new Grand Prix schedule adding 4 Legacy Grand Prix and 4 Team Trios Grand Prix, there are 8 Legacy events next year. That’s a huge increase from the two this year. Historically, Legacy staples like duals have seen their largest yearly increase just before the Legacy Grand Prix weekend and into that weekend. With 8 Legacy events this year, it will put a lot more pressure on card prices as the demand will be much higher. The manager of SCG, Ben Bleiweiss, also states in this comment on Reddit that the demand for old cards continues to increase as the price of the “Power Nine” continue to climb. This increase in card prices has historically affected cards below them.

Modern

This is the price graph of Underground Sea for the last five years. Notice the spikes right before Born of the Gods and right after Oath of the Gatewatch. Within three months the price of fetch lands used in Modern also saw big price increases.

The price graph for Scalding Tarn is not an exact match, since it’s been reprinted, but the peaks and valleys in the last three years mirror Underground Sea almost exactly. This is a case of the rising tide lifting all ships. If Power is the gold standard and duals are the silver standard, then fetches are probably the bronze standard. All three cards move in unison as people trade up and down as the exchange rate becomes favorable. If Underground Sea becomes more expensive, then players are incentivized to trade them down into fetches which causes the prices of fetches to rise. If you play Modern, this is a problem. We don’t know if there will be another Modern Masters set next year, but traditionally it has been every other year. If I had to guess we probably won’t get another fetch reprint until 2019. Until then, the older enemy colored fetchlands from Zendikar will continue to grow. But that’s not all that will cause Modern growth next year. Modern will be featured once again at the Pro Tour. Take a look at that price graph for Scalding Tarn again. You see that big bump before Born of the Gods, the little bump before Fate Reforged, and once again a big bump before Oath of the Gatewatch. They’re all related to the fact that those sets were the last 3 Modern Pro Tour sets. The next Modern Pro Tour will be in January again which means prices will start to rise in December in preparation for Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan.

Putting it All Together

We were already on a collision course with high prices as the demand for older cards continues, but the new Pro Tour and Grand Prix announcements for next year will escalate and quicken this pace. I would not be surprised if enemy colored fetch lands like Scalding Tarn and Verdant Catacombs quickly reach pre-reprint pricing. We have already seen SCG lay down the new price line for duals and I expect them to continue to climb, possibly faster than before, because of the new organized play choices. If you are looking to buy into a new deck and waiting for December, as I often suggest, it might be smarter to not wait that long this time. Legacy cards will continue to dry up and take Modern cards for a ride as their price increases. I don’t see any slowdown of card prices unless they get reprinted in Iconic Masters, but predicting that set is probably as easy as winning the lottery. If you play Commander, or just play casually with some friends but have been eyeing some expensive reserve list cards, I would suggest getting them now. Normally it’s fine to wait and see, but here I think there is too much potential for large price increase similar to what happened in January 2014.

Hope this information helps you make more informed decisions in the near future. The Pro Tour is this weekend and next weekend I’ll be covering cards that are good to get before rotation knowing the Pro Tour results. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments below or leave them on the latest episode of Cartel Aristocrats!