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Metagaming Standard: Magic 2014 Developments

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What decks are doing well in the Standard metagame? What should I consider playing and expect to face?

The following graph displays the most successful deck archetypes of the last month. The data is based on Top 16 appearances in major tournaments such as StarCityGames Opens and Grands Prix. Over half of the data is from after Magic 2014 Core Set became Standard-legal, and many of the top contenders remain unchanged, so I believe it is still worth looking at a full thirty days.

Jund Midrange remains the top deck in Standard and has gained ground, claiming nearly a third of the Top 16 finishes since the release of M14. This next graph outlines the biggest archetype trends since my pre-M14 metagame analysis from July 11.

Jund’s even greater metagame share is the largest change with Bant Auras also gaining ground thanks to a couple new creature options—more on that below. Magic 2014 also heralded the arrival of some (mostly) single-colored decks, with both Mono-Red and Elf Ramp scoring multiple Top 16 finishes.

The biggest decreases are all flavors of Reanimator and Naya decks, the black and green Desecration Demon deck, and The Aristocrats.

What cards do the top decks in Standard play?

The top archetypes are in a state of flux after the release of M14, so I’ll defer an in-depth analysis of any of them until we have more results. Instead, this week, I’ll provide a quick overview of the new cards being included in some of the top contenders. I skipped Reanimator, Junk Varolz, and Naya Midrange below because they have each only had one Top 16 finish since M14 released.

Jund Midrange

Card % Decks Avg Main % Main Avg Side % Side
Scavenging Ooze 100% 2.8 100% 1.3 23%
Doom Blade 77% 1.2 77% 0.0 0%
Lifebane Zombie 15% 3.0 15% 1.0 8%
Ratchet Bomb 15% 0.0 0% 1.0 15%
Mutavault 8% 1.0 8% 0.0 0%
Primeval Bounty 8% 0.0 0% 1.0 8%

Jund is by far the biggest winner of the M14 sweepstakes thanks to the addition of Scavenging Ooze. This explosive 2-drop has been played in all of the Jund Midrange decks since and is a replacement for Ground Seal and assorted other graveyard hate. It also doubles as a must-answer threat, making it a no-brainer for a deck full of answers that win games.

Doom Blade is an excellent removal option for the deck, particularly if The Aristocrats sees a reduction in play. Lifebane Zombie appeared in Jund Midrange decks both in the main deck and sideboard last weekend at SCG Open Somerset.

Bant Auras

Card % Decks Avg Main % Main Avg Side % Side
Gladecover Scout 83% 3.4 83% 0.0 0%
Fiendslayer Paladin 67% 3.3 67% 1.0 33%

Bant Auras picked up a duo of hard-to-remove creatures from M14, and most decks have included one or both. A 1-drop hexproof creature is an obvious boon to the strategy.

UWR Tempo

Card % Decks Avg Main % Main Avg Side % Side
Encroaching Wastes 67% 2.0 67% 0.0 0%
Ratchet Bomb 67% 0.0 0% 2.5 67%
Mutavault 33% 1.0 33% 0.0 0%

Encroaching Wastes has been added to UWR by Huey Jensen and others as an answer to Kessig Wolf Run, and Ratchet Bomb is a nice sideboard answer against any deck playing tokens and Blitz-style aggro. Mutavault can swing a Runechanter's Pike pretty well.

RG Aggro

Card % Decks Avg Main % Main Avg Side % Side
Burning Earth 67% 0.0 0% 3.0 67%
Mindsparker 33% 0.0 0% 2.0 33%
Mutavault 33% 4.0 33% 0.0 0%
Scavenging Ooze 33% 1.0 33% 2.0 33%

There’s no clear-cut choice for M14 cards in RG Aggro, and we’ve mostly just seen some experimenting with cards here and there.

Mono-Red Aggro

Card % Decks Avg Main % Main Avg Side % Side
Burning Earth 100% 4.0 67% 3.0 33%
Chandra's Phoenix 100% 4.0 100% 0.0 0%
Mutavault 100% 3.7 100% 0.0 0%
Shock 67% 2.0 33% 3.0 33%
Ratchet Bomb 33% 0.0 0% 4.0 33%
Wild Ricochet 33% 0.0 0% 2.0 33%
Young Pyromancer 33% 3.0 33% 0.0 0%

The current Mono-Red Aggro decks were born from new M14 options. This deck features Chandra's Phoenix, Mutavault, and Burning Earth in the main and Ratchet Bomb in the sideboard, for example. Here’s a deck with both the Phoenix and Young Pyromancer in the main deck.

What cards see the most competitive play? What threats am I likely to face? What removal will my opponents use against my win conditions?

A small segment of the Standard-legal card pool sees competitive play at any given time. Knowledge of what cards are prominent today should help guide your deck-building and match strategy. The following graphs show a few different things based on the Top 16 decks from major tournaments over the last month.

  1. The cards played in the highest percentage of decks
  2. The average number of copies played in the main deck and sideboard
  3. Of the decks playing the card, the percentage of time it appears in the main deck and sideboard

These graphs tell you not only what cards you will face, but when you might face them during your match. You should expect to see highly played main-deck cards in Game 1, for example, and sideboard cards in subsequent games, depending on your matchup.

The big story here is Scavenging Ooze. It has only been legal for two weeks of this data, and it still made 25% of the total decks. Adjusting for only tournaments with M14, the number goes up to 45%.

Doom Blade is the biggest M14 addition to the list. Adjusting for only tournaments since its return to Standard, the percent of decks increases to 33%.

Bonfire of the Damned saw play in 11% more decks since my last metagame review. The decrease in Top 16 Naya decks was more than compensated for by the increase in Jund Midrange and arrival of Mono-Red decks.

Duress jumped 13%, riding the Jund Midrange surge to the top of this list. Ground Seal saw a 13% drop, giving up its place to Scavenging Ooze.

What is the cutting-edge tech? What cards are seeing play in their first Top 16 decks of the Standard season?

The following tables show cards that have not seen Top 16 play until a recent event. Let’s start with SCG Open Somerset:

Card Total Copies Main Side Archetype Finish
Kalonian Hydra 4 4 0 Elf Ramp 2
Magmaquake 1 0 1 Mono-Red Aggro 6
Mindsparker 2 0 2 RG Aggro 12
Possibility Storm 3 0 3 Mono-Red Aggro 11
Shadowborn Demon 1 1 0 Reanimator 5
Shock 2 2 0 Mono-Red Aggro 6
Shock 3 0 3 Mono-Red Aggro 11
Young Pyromancer 3 3 0 Mono-Red Aggro 6

Possibility Storm is not a card I expected to see in a Top 16 deck. There’re just too many words! The deck does play sixteen creatures and sixteen sorceries, and there’s a chance of upgrading to a more expensive spell. Shadowborn Demon provides Reanimator a creature-kill spell on the back of a threatening creature. It’s a good answer to Olivia Voldaren and Scavenging Ooze in Jund Midrange. A graveyard-based deck like Reanimator has a decent chance of negating the downside of this Demon.

Now here are the new cards from Grand Prix Calgary:

Card Total Copies Main Side Archetype Finish
Curse of the Pierced Heart 3 0 3 Mono-Red Aggro 5
Wild Ricochet 2 0 2 Mono-Red Aggro 5

Both cards here are sideboard options for Adam LaForest’s fifth-place Burning Earth deck.

That’ll do it for this review of the still-developing M14 Standard metagame. Join me next week when I’ll continue reviewing the top decks and cards of the Standard metagame. Thanks for reading!

Nick Vigabool

@MrVigabool


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