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The New Power in Magic - the Legacy Dilemma

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Before we knew what was going to happen, with rumors about a major shift in legacy or the possibility of a new format, Kelly Reid explored the implications of the Legacy format. Originally published in February, 2010 here.

As a financial columnist, it's my job to cover breaking news as it relates to card prices. It's easy to just say "oh look, an expensive card" and issue a buy/sell/hold rating like so many stock watch pages. In some cases, that type of analysis is appropriate and helpful. In other situations, such as the one in which we find ourselves presently, a more in-depth analysis is required.

To what situation am I referring?

Well, if you keep up on the prices of older card, you'll know exactly what I mean. If you don't, well, check this out. Tarmogoyf has done what no mainstream card has done in recent history. At least one major site has raised their asking price to the $100 mark. It's hard to say how many other sites might list it at $100. Most of them haven't even got any. This sort of pricing and scarcity have not been seen since the days of Legends, home to such staples as Mana Drain and The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale.

Does it seem odd to mention Tarmogoyf in the company of those two cards? How about when I tell you that Force of Will is now selling for $50 on some sites? We're finally seeing a phenomenon I predicted in the summer of 2009. It's been brought on by a massive interest spike in the Legacy format directly correlated to the Star City Games 5K series. Legacy used to be a niche format, but by dramatically increasing the EV for playing the format, interest has swelled.

What we've got here is New Power. Magic is an ever-evolving game, and the original power is so far removed from the lives of everyday players. There was a time in the game where most players could recall playing with Moxes and Lotuses and Ancestral Recalls. That time has long since passed. The vast majority of Magic players have probably never seen Power outside of a dealer's display case. That's why New Power is coming to the forefront.

Magic players are very much creatures of habit. While many will complain at length about expensive cards, elite rares have a certain draw, much like that of the lottery. Everyone complains about Baneslayer Angel and Jace, the Mind Sculptor, but boxes of M10 and Worldwake still fly off the shelves. Don't believe me about Worldwake? Try calling any top-level distributor to set up a new account and get some Worldwake booster boxes. Then call me when you're sick of having people laugh in your ear so I can soothe your aching aural canals with "I told you so."

There's no doubt in my mind that Tarmogoyf is essentially Power at this juncture. Force of Will belongs in the same category. The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale as well. As Legacy becomes more and more relevant in 2010, we'll see the format begin to congeal and some "best decks" will certainly rise to prevalence. The life-cycle of the Magic rare is very strange. Cards lose a great deal of value when they rotate from Standard, but if they start seeing play in Extended, they can start pushing their old limits.

Tarmogoyf is an especially amazing card due to the sheer number of precedents it's set. When was the last time a card was $50 in Standard? Clearly, Baneslayer and Jace are following the the footsteps of giant green zombie-monsters, or whatever the hell a Lhurgoyf is. Ask the Swedish. "Lhurgoyf" sounds Scandinavian to me. A card as dominant as 'Goyf probably deserved a $50 price tag, but the amazing part is that it's even MORE expensive now that it's gone from the format.

Read that again.

Tarmogoyf has doubled in price since it left Standard. When, in the history of the game, has that ever happened? We're at a point now where card availability is actually an issue. Some cards simply do not exist in quantities necessary to satisfy the demands of the player base. Force, Tabernacle and Goyf are all in this category. The staggering thing about Tabernacle is that it's only used as a singleton. Imagine if it was used as a quad. The implications of this price creep are complex and intertwined. Legacy is still a nascent format, and one with much room to grow. As new strategies are found and more of the game's most dedicated and talented minds realize the raw growth potential in the format, don't be surprised to see more specialty cards like Entomb rise from obscurity to $30+ overnight.

2010 is going to be a very interesting year, and it's already been a profitable one for speculators who keep an eye on the format. For my part, I'll be doing my best to stay on top of Legacy and to grow with it. It's a massive amount of cards to keep in one's head, but it's my job as a Magic journalist to do so. I'd been saying that Tarmogoyf would hit $100 in 2010, but I wasn't planning on being right so soon. I'll close out this week by saying this: Tarmogoyf is one of the first, not one of the last, to make such an unprecedented rise. Keep your eyes and wallets open, since there are going to be a lot of opportunities.

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