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Conspiracy in the Making

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Over the past few months, the Wizards PR department has been working overtime to hype the June release of Conspiracy. Usually, a set release is filled with the usual spoiler season and eventually ends in a full reveal of the set for all. Though this set followed that pattern, it also had some very cool twists and turns along the way. As you may have guessed, this week, I will be covering the set in more detail given the release this week. About the time this goes live, I—and many of you—will be sitting down for our first chances to get some multiplayer chaos started. Of course, you did not come to hear me talk about how excited I am to conspire against my three other opponents; instead, I imagine you are here to see my take on the market.

Exploration
Normally, it is easy to at least have an idea of where prices will settle given past history of such products and availability of the set in general, but with Conspiracy, that is slightly more difficult given the lack of previous information. Modern Masters is the closest thing to Conspiracy we have had in a long time, but there is one major difference here, and that has to do with not only the reprints—which are easier to gauge—but instead with the new cards made specifically for this set. Beyond that, we have no idea how well this product will take or how much is being distributed, and that means it will be even more difficult to identify an accurate price. Given all of that, I am still going to do my best to identify the cards worth watching for and will primarily be focusing on the new cards rather than the reprints. So, let us enter into this chaos and see what we can find. Also, it is worth noting that, because this set has new cards across rarities, I will be making note of some important commons and uncommons to focus on as well, which I rarely do during a normal set review. For space purposes, I will not be covering part of the set that I feel has little to no room to move, so if I do not talk about a card and you have questions, please feel free to start a discussion below.

First, let me concentrate on the namesake of the set for a moment as a whole. Conspiracies, though unplayable in sanctioned Magic will probably retain some value as a way for people to enhance Cubes or casual decks. A great example of this type of novelty—and probably the closest comparison—are the Equipment cards that come in the prerelease packs now. Though most view these as worthless, they do have value, and over the past few months, they have been popping up on buy lists. I will not be talking about any in particular, but keep in mind when looking for Draft fodder that these will probably gain value over time—at what rate, I cannot be sure, but picking these up in bulk or as throw-ins for trade seems to be a strong plan.

White

Swords to Plowshares
White overall seems fairly boring to me for most of the set, but there are a few cards worth noting for value. Swords to Plowshares has been reprinted so many times that the value, though perhaps not initially, will probably stabilize to the same as it is now. That being said, expect these to be easy to obtain for a while, and take advantage of that, as they will probably return to the $2-apiece buy list in fairly short order.

Brago's Representative is just one example of cards with the new voting mechanic, and though they are fairly useless in competitive Magic, they may hold some long-term value if casual appeal is there. Multiplayer Magic has always been a format, and those groups tend to like to mix things in any way they can, whether that be with Planechase or with Vanguard, so expect this to also follow suit. I would not go out of your way to pick most of these cards up, but note when you are picking bulk in the future that it may be best to set these aside and see what they do over time.

Council's Judgment has been one of the major talking points for the set, and for good reason. This card provides another out against cards like True-Name Nemesis. The value really depends on how much product is opened, but given the presale of $15 or higher, it is almost assuredly going down from that, as it is only a rare. Depending on initial demand, this may hold for a short while, but I would be dumping these when I open them until the price settles closer to $10 or below. Though the card is certainly strong, it does have its weaknesses and cannot dismiss Oblivion Ring effects from Legacy, as it still does not answer Show and Tell right away given the sorcery speed.

Custodi Soulbinder represents one of the cycles in this set, and in general, it is a very cool idea that only becomes better in multiplayer. These types of cards usually have strong long-term gains, and that certainly seems likely here, as the set is not going to be opened as much as a Standard-legal release. More than likely, most of this cycle will hit bulk before it goes up, but do not be afraid to stash these for a while, as they all have potential not only in that they can be huge creatures, but in that they have relevant secondary abilities.

Blue

Misdirection
Similar to Swords to Plowshares, Brainstorm, and Fact or Fiction, and a number of other cards in the set will probably see little to no change over time even given an initial drop. This means if you need any of these cards to flesh out Legacy or Commander decks, this would probably be the cheapest time to obtain them. This is not to say every reprint will come back to the current price; in this case, we can draw a lot from Modern Masters, which shows us how tournament staples react to a reprint of this capacity as opposed to more obscure picks.

Misdirection is another major selling point of the set, and of course, that will probably drop the price. Unlike with some of the other cards, I do not expect this to rebound as quickly given the limited play, but it is still a Legacy card people will recognize, and that means it probably won’t fall more than fifty percent even once the dust settles. Old foils will probably see even less impact given the old frame, but it will be interesting to see where the new foil lands. It does not hurt that they gave the card not only a new border but new art, so it may be even less of a drop in price than initially expected. I would not rush to sell these if you do not mind holding them for a little while.

Stifle falls into the same category here as Misdirection, but with one key difference: There has already been a version printed with this art, but only in foil. This means the spread between the regular and foil copy should be lower than Misdirection, but it also may create slightly more demand on the nonfoil, as it has never been obtainable with the new art. Other than that one difference, I expect the prices to follow a similar trajectory unless one or the other begins to see increased play.

Muzzio, Visionary Architect is one of the more exciting cards for me, as my first commander back when I played the format was Arcum Dagsson. Given that he is mythic and probably a fairly sought-after commander, I expect him to hold between $5 and $10 even with no competitive play. I may be biased on this one, as I almost want to rebuild a Commander deck to play this guy, but with the banning of Tolarian Academy, I will probably resist.

Black

Reign of the Pit
Reign of the Pit will probably end up a bulk rare, but if that does happen, snag these. This is a very powerful effect, and it’s certainly one that becomes better with the more players who are added to the chaos. I don’t foresee this being worth a ton of money at any point, but it will certainly have some demand down the road as a consideration for most fair black Commander decks.

Tyrant's Choice seems so simple at first glance given the ideal multiplier format for which these cards were intended, but in Legacy, this just continues to make Flame Rift look worse as another 2-mana, 4-damage spell, and in this case, it causes life loss, which can be relevant. Not saying this will be a chase common, but from the new cards, this is certainly one that should at least have some demand even at common.

Red

Scourge of the Throne seems to have a lot going on, but as it will never have a chance in Standard, or at least not for now, it is unlikely to have much in the way of value. Most of these mythic Dragons end up between $2 and $5, and I expect this to be no different. It’s a very cool card and certainly another addition to decks like Mayael the Anima, but beyond that, I don’t see any potential here.

Green

Hydra Omnivore
Exploration is the next card on my list to watch out for, but it’s not because it is being reprinted; instead, it’s because this will be the first time ever this card is available in foil. Though we are certainly not able to fully foil Legacy Lands or any other deck that probably wants this, it is a very cool addition to the Legacy foil pool. No idea what the starting price will be, but I expect these to settle above $100, even given the limited amount of play they see.

Hydra Omnivore is one of the few mythics I expect to take a hit given that it was only so expensive because it was in a limited release before. That being said, it will probably not drop more than fifty percent, as it still has demand going for it, and the fact that it is not a rare means it is unlikely to flood the market with this printing.

Expect the new foil Nature's Claim to demand a premium, as the art is gorgeous and probably will look great foil. I don’t see it hurting the old printing much if at all, but still snag these cheap if you can, as the Worldwake versions are already $10 or so.

Multicolored

Dack's Duplicate
Dack's Duplicate is among the more interesting Clone variants we have seen, and though it is unlikely to see any play in Eternal formats, it is still worth picking up if you can. I imagine the presale price will be about right when the dust settles, and from there, it has nowhere to go but up. Given the direct name reference, we are unlikely to see a reprint soon, and that means this has some time to grow for you long-term speculators.

Edric, Spymaster of Trest being printed again as a rare is likely to force the other copies down some, but how much will just depend on whether he continues to show up in feature matches and Top 8s in the coming months. Either way, it is best to dump your copies now if you can still gain a reasonable return on them, and pick them up in a few weeks or months when the price comes down some.

Grenzo, Dungeon Warden falls in line with Muzzio for me as far as potentially awesome commanders, but unlike Muzzio, this card may see some fringe play if there are any combos that can be created with him. It may be a long shot, but the design of this card is asking to be busted, and I truly hope something does come along. Expect it to settle in the $5 range unless something crazy does happen.

Marchesa, the Black Rose is among the more exciting cards from the set, and though I do not see her being particularly powerful in anything competitive, I do see her being a real pain in Commander. Like most of the other potential commanders here, I imagine she will end up in the $5 range unless she turns out to be the next Kaalia of the Vast, but I do not see that happening.

Marchesa, the Black Rose
Marchesa's Smuggler has a very relevant ability for an uncommon, and it’s one I expect to be worth a few dollars down the road. Again, given the name, it is unlikely to be reprinted any time soon and should be a consideration for more than just a few Izzet decks.

Pernicious Deed has not seen a reprint for a while, and with the stagnation in play, this may cut the price in half, as the buy list has already been slowly crawling downward. I do not expect this to kill the value, but I imagine it will take longer to recover, even at mythic, than some of the more played reprints.

Selvala, Explorer Returned may be among the more interesting cards in the set, and it’s one I would like to try to build around. Clearly, she becomes better the more people you are playing with, but even gaining, on average, 1 life and 1 mana while being a Howling Mine does not seem all that bad if you have better cards to ramp into. As with the others, I imagine this will also settle in the $5 range, as it is in the wrong colors to be played with much deck manipulation, but it certainly seems for be a well-costed body with a very relevant effect, and that gives me some hope for the future—even outside of just casual play.

Brago, King Eternal, to me, is just not that exciting; sure, there are always fun times to be had when blinking permanents, but most of the time, if your opponent does not want this card to trigger, he or she can stop it. I don’t see this being as hot as some of the other commanders in this set, but I may be wrong. Either way, it should stay out of the bulk bins for now, and as with the rest, it will probably gain over time.

Dack Fayden
I do not want to speculate much on Dack Fayden, and really, outside of the fact that I have been told by numerous people that I have to begin collecting him as my doppelganger, I am not sure how I feel about him. Both of his smaller abilities seem very relevant, and I am certain he will see some play, but given the color combinations, it may be hard to find more than one deck for him to fit in, and he certainly should not be anywhere near the current presale. Expect him to land between $15 and $20.




Well, that seems to be the conclusion for me this week. As I said before, if you feel I may have missed a card you would like to talk about, please let me know either below in the discussion section or on Twitter. Until next week, may you conspire against your enemies and come out victorious this weekend.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand on Twitter


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