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M11 Standard Adjustments After Three Nationals

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As you probably know, Canada, Australia, and France held their National Championship tournaments this past weekend. By now, most people will have seen the top lists from these tournaments and they'll be either copying said lists, or adjusting their own decks with these new decks in mind.

As far as I can see, M11 doesn't seem to have spawned any completely new decks, but it has had a significant impact of virtually every deck in the format. Even a deck like Jund, a collection of the most powerful cards in it's colors, has been seen including Obstinate Baloth and sometimes Grave Titan as their 1-2 of curve topper.

Another example is UW Control, which is going through something of a transformation as it adapts to the presence of Mana Leak. Whenever new cards are introduced into a defined format, it behooves us to reconsider our evaluations of existing cards. The power level and effectiveness of any given card can only really be determined by the other cards in a format.

Path to ExileTake Path to Exile as an example. Previously you could look at Path and say "this card is a very undercosted answer to almost any creature in the format. The drawback is that my opponent may be able to cast his/her spells earlier than usual, or may be able to cast multiple spells on a turn where they otherwise couldn't." Now, if you add Mana Leak to a deck with Path, you have to reevaluate Path's value. Suddenly, there are more situations to consider. What if my opponent only has one spell, and they could cast it anyway? In our pre-Mana Leak format, the extra land would not be immediately useful to your opponent and therefore you would have effectively negated the drawback of Path. In our new format, you have to consider that the extra land from Path might allow your opponent to play through Mana Leak.

I know that my first evaluation of Path doesn't cover every possibility. I also know that my example of Path and Mana Leak is fairly straightforward. But it illustrates a point that is vital to keep in the front of your mind when you are build decks after the release of a new set.

There are other cards that are impacted by Mana Leak which are less obvious. I'm talking about Cancel. Cancel is a card that has been the target of a lot of hate, due to being a strictly worse version of Counterspell. Despite having been in the format since Time Spiral, Cancel has not been widely accepted outside of Block Constructed – where the standards for playability are considerably lower. I think that there are a couple of reasons why this has been the case.

First, as dead as this horse is, Bloodbraid Elf. Playing a classic control strategy with a wall of counters doesn't work nearly as well in a world where your opponent is casting multiple threats a turn starting on turn 4 and sometime even sooner.

Seconds, and more to my previous point, complimentary cards. Now that we have Mana Leak, cards like Cancel, Essence Scatter, and Negate increase in value because we suddenly have access to an unconditional counterspell on turn 2. This makes it more likely that leaving mana open on turn 3 for a Cancel is actually an option. It makes your conditional counters better because Mana Leak can cover for your conditional counters in the case that they are not useable.

A recent comparison would be Negate and Flashfreeze. Against Jund, if you have both of these cards in hand on your opponents third turn, you have almost all your bases covered. If your opponent plays a Blightning you can Negate it. Sprouting Thrinax? Flashfreeze. You are able to stop any play that most Jund opponents would make at this point. Since Flashfreeze counters so many of Jund's cards, you are able to cover for a lot of possible plays, but you also have the option of pulling the trigger on your Negate if a targets presents itself. In this case, your Flashfreeze increases the potential value of your Negate because the ability to use that Negate instead of Flashfreeze allows you more options later.

The same line of thinking can be applied to Cancel and Negate or Cancel and Essence Scatter. If you're holding up counter mana, chances are good that you'll counter any threat your opponent plays. Giving yourself protection against virtually anything, while also giving yourself the possible option of expending a less versatile card for the same effect that your more versatile card would have had is a very advantaged position to be in.

All of this talk about card reevaluation relates directly to the results from the three National Championships held this past weekend. For reference, here are the Top 8 standings from those tournaments, with a list of which decks were represented where:

Canada

  1. UW Control
  2. Valakut Ramp
  3. GUR Destructive Force
  4. Jund Monument
  5. Jund
  6. GUR Destructive Force
  7. Jund
  8. Jund
Australia

  1. Valakut Ramp
  2. Naya Destructive Force
  3. Next Level Bant (with Fauna Shaman)
  4. Fauna Shaman Naya
  5. UW Control (Tapout)
  6. Jund
  7. Boros
  8. GUR Destructive Force
France

  1. UW Control
  2. Pyromancer's Ascension Combo
  3. Polymorph
  4. UW Control
  5. UW Control
  6. Turboland
  7. Fauna Shaman Naya
  8. RDW

Of those 24 decks, only one deck type (Destructive Force), with two different variations (Naya and GUR), was represented that wasn't a previously explored strategy. The rest were old strategies augmented by new cards. What you can see if you look at the lists, however, is that most these decks did not simply replace their worst cards with shiny new ones. They replaced certain cards, and then adjusted their composition around those new additions.

In these lists you see examples of UW decks adding not just Mana Leak, but also Essence Scatter, Deprive, and Cancel to their main deck. You also see a shift in some of the lists from Mind Spring to Jace's Ingenuity, which is not as powerful an effect, but plays much better with the additional counterspells. You also see Jace Beleren making a comeback, not only to combat opposing Jaces, but also to lower the curve so that you can Jace with counter backup as early as turn 5.

There are of course examples of decks that simply add new cards and become viable. The printing of Preordain seems like it may have been just what combo decks in this format needed. Both a Polymorph deck and a Pyromancer's Ascension deck made it onto their National team with the help of 4 Preordain. I've had a chance to play against the Ascension deck and I can tell you that it is very consistent, fast, and disruptive. It is weak to opponents who overload on ways to remove the Ascension itself, but make no mistake, it is the kind of deck that will crush a tournament the minute people drop their guard. It is worth mentioning that both of the combo decks also played 4 Mana Leak, and it's likely that the additional disruption and combo protection was just as important as the additional card selection provided by Preordain.

Magic 2011 - Destructive ForceThe new kids on the block are the Destructive Force decks. They aim to take advantage of some synergies I wrote about in my last article. Destructive Force, Primeval Titan, Planeswalkers, and Knight of the Reliquary. Now, only one of the lists plays Knight of the Reliquary, but all of the lists played Primeval Titan and a number of Planeswalkers. Despite the recent success of this strategy, I think it is poorly positioned at this moment. With the resurgence of consistent, disruptive combo decks, and the shift of UW towards more counter heavy builds, strategies that involve resolving a 7 mana spell and another spell to compliment it just don't seem practical.

I will note that I think the Naya Destructive Force deck from Australian Nations is an improvement on the list I posted last week. The pilot, Jeremy Neeman, was playing a version that seemed slightly less concerned with resolving Destructive Force. In fact, he was only playing 2 copies of the card.

Where I had Garruk to compliment Destructive Force, he has Elspeth, to just win the game all by her lonesome. Where I have Cultivate he has Rampant Growth, which I think is also an upgrade, as in testing I found myself rarely losing when I resolved a 3rd turn Planeswalker, especially on the play. Neeman's list also has a couple Path to Exile, which allow him to answer early threats. I was not playing Path to Exile because I didn't want to give my opponent extra lands that might allow them to mount a comeback if I resolved Destructive Force. In reality I should just have played some Path's, because they are an early answer to real problems, and they also have a tricky secondary function as makeshift ramp spells in a pinch.

A final big difference between our lists is the manabase. Neeman chose to play the full 8 manlands, and 3 Tectonic Edges. He is playing less fetch lands than I was, but that may just be better. I think it's a tough call, but if you think about actual game situations, having more situations where your Knight is exposed to Lightning Bolt might be worth the mana fixing and the very high chance that you'll always have access to a manland.

M11 has definitely made it's presence felt in Standard quite quickly. There is clearly a lot of space to adjust old decks, and it seems like there is also potential for many new decks. Now that any deck playing Blue can play 4 Ponder, 4 Preordain, and 4 Mana Leak, any deckbuild can use that as the base for a combo deck and have a reasonable expectation of consistency and protection. Mana Leak and Jace's Ingenuity offer control players the option to move away from tapout style control, back to more of a draw-go strategy. Any creature deck playing Green now has the option of a Fauna Shaman + Vengevine shell, which also has access to a toolbox of utility creatures. This set has really created a lot of possibilities for deckbuilders and I think we're only seeing the beginning of the innovation.

Until next week, I'll leave you with this quote.

"If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles." - Sun Tzu

- Benjamin Hayes

Bonus: Interview with a PTQ Champion.

This week I had a chance to talk to Nick Spagnolo, the winner of the Edison, NJ PTQ for Pro Tour Amsterdam. He shared his decklist, how his PTQ went, and his initial thoughts on the new Extended format.

Ben: Let's start off with some background. When did you start playing Magic, and what got you started?

Nick: I've been playing since I was about 11, I started during Invasion Block. I mostly played FNM and store events. I played casually for years but quit after Kamigawa block. I came back to Magic and started grinding the northeast PTQ circuit around the time Shadowmoor was released.

Ben: Magic accomplishments before this?

Nick: I won a grinder for US Nationals in 2008 and went 5-2 on Day 1 of that tournament, before an unimpressive Day 2. I made Top 8 of 4 PTQs before I won my first PTQ at Grand Prix: DC, for Pro Tour San Juan. After a sad 3-5 in San Juan, I went on to 11-0-1 a side event to win a foil set of every card in Standard. I didn't play much between than and this Standard season. This season I made Top 8 in three PTQs, losing once in the Quarterfinals, once in the Finals, and winning the last one.

Ben: What was the turnout like for the PTQ that you won? I know it was the last PTQ of the season for most of the Northeast grinders, so I assume it was pretty big. What deck did you play, and what decks did you face over the course of the day?

Nick: The PTQ had 300 people, a 9 rounder. I played UW Draw-go with 4 main deck Cancels, a list designed by Matt Ferrando. During the day I faced 3 Jund, 3 u/w control (1 splashing red and 1 splashing black), 2 Primeval Titan decks (1 Valakut and 1 Destructive Force), 1 Megrim deck, 1 Fauna Shaman Naya, and 1 Pyromancer's Ascension Combo.

Ben: Well congratulations! Now that the new Extended format is relevant to you, can I get your thoughts on it?

Nick: My initial thoughts are that the format is going to be defined by Punishing Fire decks, since Grove of the Burnwillows + Punishing Fire can fit into so many different shells. It could be put into an aggressive deck with Tarmogoyf, or a control deck with Mystical Teachings. With so many options for it, I imagine it's going to be important to have a solid plan again Punishing Fire.

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