Before the release of each expansion I do my best to try and predict the nature of that set.  We try to do this well before any cards are released.  This is not simply a wish-list of things I would want to see in the set, it is a strict analysis of the set itself in the context of the limited information already known.  The following were my predictions that were outlined here more than 9 weeks ago (May 1st).  With all of Magic 2010 now spoiled, I am able to take a quick look back at my predictions and comment on each.

Mark Rosewater's pie is ready!

1. Respect for the Pie – CORRECT – Not a huge surprise.  This was explored in detail by WotC during the 2010 “rule-change-ageddon.”  M10 certainly takes the game back towards the color pie dominated world from whence it came. Cards in this set are flavorful and adhere strictly to the color they are printed in.  Some cards have even been renamed in an effort to move towards a more universally recognizable fantasy realm.  Alara coupled with the Lorwyn block lands are going to dominate competitive play but as those expansions rotate out there is the potential for mono colored decks to make a big comeback depending on what Zendikar looks like.

2. Revival of old mechanics and assigning thereof to various colors – NOT REALLY – Only one “new” mechanic was revived in M10 with Bogardan Hellkite.  By “new” I mean mechanics such as Split Second, Suspend, Flash, etc.  Modern mechanics.  Wizards stuck to the basics this time around.  Flying, First Strike, and Firebreathing dominate the new core set.  They did however stick to their respective colors.  For instance, there are no Blue creatures with first strike in M10 while first strike runs rampant in its native colors, red and white.  This makes sense, it being a core set.  But it makes even more sense since Mark Rosewater’s recent comments on Zendikar indicating that the new expansion will feature a large number of new mechanics and a revival of an old one.

3. ZERO Multicolored Cards – CORRECT – I was either right or wrong on this one.  I laid it all out there.  “None, Zilch, Nada” I believe was the phrase and I was correct.  Magic 2010 features not one Multicolored card.  This is common in core sets and is also not a huge surprise.  But you had to wonder.. in a post Lorwyn/Alara world, wouldn’t you think that the core set might feature a gold card or two?  Just a thought.

Reprints = Mad Scrilla.

4. Reprints with new names - CORRECT – While I thought  wizards might reprint a few cards in order to “flavor-up” the core set, I wasn’t expecting it to this magnitude.  Scores of cards are being reduxed with new titles.  From Spirit Link to Regeneration,  a large chunk of the “new cards” we were looking forward to are simply reprints in disguise.  This isn’t entirely upsetting.  This was to be expected in a core set / reboot.  We’re lucky to get anything new.  And with Zendikar just around the corner as well as the Planechase game type, we’re sure to have enough new content for the summer.

5. Planeswalkers featured in theme decks – WRONG – After the announcement of  Garruck vs. Liliana, I knew this one was out the window.  I appreciate the five original planeswalkers being featured in the core set.  I feel they add a depth and attraction to the game that we haven’t seen in many years.  I suppose including the pw’s in “starter decks” would have taken a bit of their shimmer away.  Wiz has always indicated that they want to keep them special and including them in a $7 prepack with the likes of Nightmare and Shivan Dragon just doesn’t do them justice.

6. More Rare Downgrades/Upgrades – CORRECT – The biggest surprise here for me was the upgrading of two artifacts to Mythic.  Both Platinum Angel and Darksteel Colossus are now mythic.  Righteousness has received a downgrade to uncommon.  There are a number of other cards that I would have downgraded as well (Nightmare and Shivan Dragon come to mind).  None of this is very surprising.   Cards like Righteousness just doesn’t pack the same punch in a world where 9/9 shrouded creatures cost seven mana and the ultimate removal spell costs one.

7. Wrath of God – WRONG – Probably the most shocking revelation outside the rule changes to come out of M10.  It has certainly caused the most uproar.  I think a lot of the disappointment has to do with the $50 playsets people have recently bought that now have to lay dormant for the next year (at least).   I think it would be easier to accept if there were some sort of alternative.  A spell that destroys all non-land permanents for 6 is not an acceptable alternative.  The beauty of WoG was that it could go in almost any deck and stop a rush before you died.  Turn six or seven sorcerys that cost 3 colored mana don’t quite cut the mustard.  Before the release of the full spoiler, I would have been worried for White’s future.  What are they going to do about the rush?  But post-spoiler, I am worried about what anyone is going to do about the rush.  Even Evacuate has been dismissed this go around.  In the end, I was wrong about Wrath of God being reprinted in Magic 2010.  And while that alone isn’t enough to worry me, the lack of any effective sweep card certainly does.

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Well, well well… 4 out of 7.  I must be some kind of psychic or something!  I mean, with a %57 accuracy rating, how can you not heed these predictions? Though, this is certainly a better showing than my previous attempt. Maybe we should rename these articles to “New Expansion – Baseless Speculation and More!”  It has a certain ring to it, doesn’t it?   Keep refreshing your browsers (every 15 seconds should do it) because our Magic 2010 analysis is in full swing.  You’ll also want to be on the lookout for my Zendikar predictions, which should come fairly soon.   I prefer to write these articles well in advance of any information we may have on the set.  It makes them a tad more fun, don’t you think?  Until then, I hope you enjoyed your local Magic 2010 release events!  I managed a 2nd place finish (out of 20) at my local shop thanks to a timely Great Sable Stag.   Feel free to share your experiences.  On another personal note, take a look at the latest contest from WotC over at Bragster.  Ive entered all three dares thus far and could certainly use your support!

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Since the dawn of Time Walk, there have been a nearly infinite number of Magic the Gathering decks created and played.  All of these decks fall under one of the three super-types of deck builds.  These super-types are rush/aggro, control, and combo.  Every deck ever made falls into one of these types and each rises and falls in popularity depending on the cards available and their legality.  After Mirrodin was released affinity decks, certainly a rush/aggro build, dominated games from the Pro-Tour to the coffee table.  Around the era of Seething Song, Rite of Flame, and Dragonstorm combo builds that focused on the storm ability dominated.  And so on and so forth.  Magic 2010 appears to be taking the game in a new direction, both stylistically and functionally.  The question is, how are the three super-types changing along with it.  To answer that we take a look at where they are now and where they will be after M10 is released later this month.

– - – Rush/Aggro – - -

look out, aggro/rush decks will be all the rage

Currently this is the most popular deck build archetype out there.  Basically the premise is to empty your hand  as quickly as possible and do 20 damage to your opponent before they have a chance to breathe.  There is little thought in defense, just in making sure that every card counts and you win as quickly as possible (usually turn five).  Token decks have dominated the tournament scene for much of the past year, and Bloodbraid Elf seems to ensure that rush will remain viable for at least a while longer.  Without sounding like too much of an elitist, rush is surely the easiest build to understand and to master.  The developers of Magic 2010 not only understand this point, they embrace it.  Cards like Ball Lightning and Elite Vanguard are perfect examples of cards meant to be played at  one distinct time: as soon as possible.  The pros of a Rush/Aggro dominated future?  Decks are easier to build, games are quicker and often more fun to play.  Even if these games tend to turn into proverbial contests of chicken with each player running full speed at the other hoping the other gets out of the way.  And therein lies the con of a shift towards aggro.  The big, fat con:  in-game strategy is pushed to the way-side in an environment where the only concern is playing your cards as fast as possible.  That is the environment M10 is endorsing.

– - – Control – - –

the essence of control

Control decks are the opposite of aggro/rush.  Every move is measured, and every play is made with the goal of eventually running your foe out of options.  Control decks represent the pinnacle of in-game strategy.  Unlike aggro/rush, the idea is defend and react, to have an answer for everything until your opponent runs out of bullets or you gain the advantage.  Lorwyn/Shadowmoor ushered in a new golden age of control that is only now beginning to crumble.  Amazing lands allowed duelists to build with any control elements they saw fit, and cards such as Cryptic Command, Cloudthresher, and Thoughtseize fit easily together.  Suddenly, dueling with control builds meant using any or maybe even all of the colors.  Blue no longer owned the lion’s share of control spells.  They were spread across white, black, green and sometimes even red.  Magic 2010 certainly keeps this theme with even less control for blue.  White now appears to be the dominant control color while blue and black wrestle for second place.  That being said, the exclusions of Wrath of God, Cryptic Command and Reflecting Pool from M10 mean fewer control builds in the near future.  What do we gain?  Games will move much quicker and be easier for new-comers to understand and play.  Deck building will also become more important as in-game strategy loses emphasis.  Drawbacks with this shift in styles are numerous.  Everything from blue being nerfed, to a simple lack of strategy in a strategy-based game.

– - – Combo – - –

great combos are always memorable

As a sort of hybrid between the first two super-types exists the combo deck.  Combo builds work on the idea of using two or more cards to create a win condition as quickly and efficiently as possible.  The aforementioned Dragonstorm deck is a perfect example.  A build made up of cards that on the surface aren’t great (many not even playable), but combine to form some sort of Voltronesque avalanche of beatdown.  Isochron Scepter/ Counterspell is a combo deck.  So are all the variations of Seismic Assault/ Swans of Bryn Argoll.  Many combo decks are set up to run themselves (particularly with abilities like storm and cascade), requiring little attention after the initial shuffle.  Part of the lure of a good combo deck is predictability and the complete control the player has over their cards.  All of the skill here is in the initial building of the deck.  These decks always make a noisy burst onto the tournament scene and exploit the element of surprise.  Then disappear almost as quickly, relegated to casual games until time immemorial.  The best combinations are ones that WotC did not realize when the cards were printed.  Making it very tough to judge if the seemingly stark lack of combo pieces in M10 is intentional.  (Admittedly the Cascade mechanic is the best combo assist produced since Storm, but that was Alara.)  There are reasons to smile at this trend towards fewer true combo builds.  Most importantly, the games in which these decks are played could not be more boring.  Sorry, they just are, even if you win.  Second, in-game strategy being almost entirely removed sucks and sucks hard.  Building a good deck should always be part of MTG skill, but not the only part.  Especially with net decking and build jacking at their highest levels ever.  However, there is also a big reason to frown.  Many players love combo decks!  Each new combo carries with it a wave of copy cats and look-a-like builds that sweeps over casual games and competitive duels.  Because hey, sometimes all it takes to have a good time is to win.

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What have we learned?  Creature rush and aggro burn will be all the rage within the M10 set and WotC likes it that way.  We also can see control fading back to the realm of the supremely skilled player and out of the mainstream.  And combos?  There don’t seem to be any pieces readily apparent in Magic 2010.  How do you see M10 changing the popularity of these super-types?  And how will they play in the brave new world that is WotC’s vision?  That is up to you to decide.

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